After my last post on Euro rentals, a Dear Reader (thank you R) seconded my opinion that Europeans tend to book their vacation rentals very far in advance. But: you didn’t think we here at BHMTravelDad were going to just leave it at that, did you? You, Dear Reader, are certainly wondering: did I book in haste? At the risk of engendering some serious buyer’s remorse, I’m going to revisit the topic, to see if, had I waited until now, would I still be able to find a nice rental in the Loire? Would I, perhaps, even find a better one?
So, I reran my Loire Valley searches on Airbnb and VRBO. Rather quickly I was able to recognize some of the other favorites we had on the original short list. Clearly there hasn’t been a huge amount of booking activity in the last few months. I did a further test: I searched for rooms first, with my specific dates; second, with no dates at all. The comparison told me that about 60% of all available places had already been booked. That seems like a pretty high number to me (I’m not getting the best locations anymore) but, there’s clearly enough inventory still there for a good stay.
Now, I’m also finding a few places that I didn’t see before that I think may be nice. Note I’m not doing a deep dive, but keep in mind that inventory does get added, either through cancellations, or new property additions. I see a couple that are coming in maybe 15% cheaper than the one I booked. Again, not doing a deep dive into each spot, maybe these places are still rejects, but my current ruling: I had no need to book as early as I did.
Because we’re thorough here at BHMTravelDad – you, Dear Reader, deserve that – I decided to research just a bit further. Specifically: I went back and revisited the Black Forest. Recall back in 2016, when I searched 4 months out, that I found no (!) suitable rental apartments still available. None. What does it look like now?
Well. For dates in June, I’m coming up with, oh, maybe a half dozen that still look pretty good. And, same as with the Loire, my blank date check test shows the area is about 60% booked. The cream of the crop may be gone, but there’s still a lot left to choose from.
But wait! June is still 5 months out. How about availability for, say, three months out? Fair enough. Let’s say you found a discounted Flight to Paris for Spring Break; good news, as far as I can tell, you’ll still have plenty of Loire Valley inventory to choose from. The same seems to hold for the Black Forest. Sure, maybe these are off-peak for those locations, but on the whole, I’m ready to say that there’s enough inventory in all the major vacation destinations to keep you from having to worry about booking too far ahead. It may be that the sheer number of available rentals has increased these past two years, that’s plausible.
Summary: I think you’re still better off with my original strategy, which is to concentrate on air fares ahead of lodging. I’ll check this theory again when summer fares go on sale, but right now, I’m thinking I didn’t need to buy my lodging as early as I did.
Have I hurt myself by doing so? Now that doesn’t look likely, yet – it’s possible that there’ll be a seriously discounted business class fare sale, lower than I’ve ever seen. But not likely. It’s also possible La Compagnie will re-offer their $1,100 R/T fare, in which case I’m our $300/ticket. I’m also going to call this unlikely. I’m comfortable where I am right now – and we had some very good reason for choosing our destination already – but next trip, I may revert to my previous strategy of letting the airlines bid for my vacation.
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